2023 (20), №2

Классификация модельного аппарата влияния монетарной политики на динамику макропоказателей

Для цитирования:

Солодовников, С. В., Болячин, Ю. В. (2023). Классификация модельного аппарата влияния монетарной политики на динамику макропоказателей. AlterEconomics, 20(2), 437–462. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2023.20-2.8

Аннотация:

В настоящее время все большее число экономистов, исследователей и политиков задумываются над проблемами экономического роста и связанных с ним факторов. Инвестиции выступают одним из наиболее эффективных драйверов экономического роста. Схожие меры по стимулированию инвестиционной активности могут оказать различное воздействие на экономику государства или его субъектов. Выявление факторов, порождающих такие различия, является целью экономических исследований на протяжении многих десятилетий. Особое внимание заслужила тема неоднородности влияния монетарной политики, проводимой Центральными банками, на различные макропоказатели национальной экономики. Проведенный литературный обзор зарубежных и отечественных научных работ с середины XX века по настоящее время позволил выявить эволюцию методов исследования оценки влияния монетарной политики на инвестиции и некоторые другие макропоказатели. Методы, применяемые в первых исследованиях, могли лишь идентифицировать наличие или отсутствие территориальной неоднородности, но не определяли факторы этой неоднородности. Расширение области и целей исследований предполагало совершенствование моделей, включение новых переменных и взаимосвязей внутри объектов. С учетом проведенного анализа выявлено, что наиболее подходящим методом оценки влияния монетарной политики на динамику региональных инвестиций на текущем этапе, можно считать модели векторных авторегрессий (VAR-модели) и их дополнения. Сформированы предположения о дальнейших этапах развития модельного аппарата по учету региональной неоднородности. Во-первых, необходимо улучшить спецификации эконометрических моделей с учетом включения дополнительных переменных. Во-вторых, совершенствовать методики оценки взаимного влияния пространственного взаимодействия субъектов на шоки монетарной политики.

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Солодовников Сергей Владимирович — главный экономист, Отделение по Красноярскому краю Сибирского главного управления Центрального Банка Российской Федерации; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0082-9807 (Российская Федерация, 660049, Красноярский край, г. о. г. Красноярск, г. Красноярск, ул. Дубровинского, 70; e-mail: solod_2005@mail.ru).

Болячин Юрий Витальевич — главный экономист, Отделение по Красноярскому краю Сибирского главного управления Центрального Банка Российской Федерации; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6665-3368 (Российская Федерация, 660049, Красноярский край, г. о. г. Красноярск, г. Красноярск, ул. Дубровинского, 70; e-mail: bolyachinyury@gmail.com).

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