2012, №1

Теоретические аспекты влияния платежного баланса на проведение монетарной политики

Аннотация:

В статье раскрыты вопросы структуры платежного баланса, рассмотрены различия в подходах к анализу его эффектов, приведен обзор существующих направлений исследований факторов динамики платежного баланса. Наибольшее внимание уделено особенностям использования монетарных инструментов для стабилизации платежного баланса в зависимости от выбранного страной валютного режима.

Скачать статью в формате PDF
Скачано: 7, размер: 1.5 MB

Новак Анна Евгеньевна, исследователь научно-учебной лаборатории макроэкономического анализа НИУ Высшая школа экономики, Москва, e-mail: ananova7@gmail.com

Хвостова Ирина Евгеньевна, исследователь научно-учебной лаборатории макроэкономического анализа НИУ Высшая школа экономики, Москва, e-mail: iekhvostova@gmail.com

  1. Руководство по платежному балансу : пер. с англ.; 5-е изд. М.: МВФ, 1993. — 250 с.
  2. Anderson J. E. The Mercantilist Index of Trade Poli-
    cy // Boston College Working Papers in Economics. — 1998. — No 416.
  3. Bahmani-Oskooee M. Determinants of international trade flows. The case of developing countries // Journal of Development Economics. — 1986. — No 20. — P. 107-123.
  4. Bahmani-Oskooee M., Kara, O. Relative Responsive-ness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate // International Review of Applied Economics. — 2003. — No 17(3). — P. 293-308.
  5. Boyd D., Caporale G.M., Smith R. Real exchange rate effects on the balance of trade. Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner condition // International Journal of Finance and Economics. — 2001. — No 6. — P. 187–200.
  6. Bussiere M., Mulder, C. External vulnerability in emerging market economies: How high liquidity can offset weak fundamentals and the effects of contagion // Inter-national Monetary Fund Working Papers. — 1999. No 88.
  7. Calvo G. A. Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management. Tequila Lessons // International Journal of Finance Economics. — 1996. — Vol. 1. — P. 207-223
  8. Chung K., Turnovsky S. 2009. Foreign debt supply in an imperfect international capital market. Theory and evidence // Journal of International Money and Finance. — 2009. — No 29. — P. 201-223.
  9. Cole H., Kehoe T. A Self-fulfilling Model of Mexico's 1994-1995 Debt Crisis // Journal of International Economics. — 1996. — No 41(3-4). — P. 309-330.
  10. Edwards S. Does the Current Account Matter? // National Bureau of Economic Research Inc., 2001. WP No 8275
  11. Eichengreen B. Capital Flows and Crises. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 2003.
  12. Flood R. P. Marion N. P. Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature // Journal of International Economics. — 1997. — No 43. — P. 263-286.
  13. Frankel J., Rose A. Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets. An Empirical Treatment // Journal of International Economics. — 1996. — No 41(3-4). — P. 351-366.
  14. Freund C. L. Current account adjustment in indus-trialized countries // International Finance Discussion Papers. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S). — 2000. — No 692.
  15. Freund C. L. Current account adjustments in industrialized countries // Journal of International Money and Finance. — 2005. — No 24 (8). — P. 1278-1298.
  16. Galí J., Monacelli T. Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union // Journal of International Economics. — 2008. — No 76(1). — P. 116-132.
  17. Gianella C. Chanterloup C. Assessing Russia’s Non-fuel Trade Elasticities: Does The Russian Economy React “Normally” To Exchange Rate Movements // Post-Communist Economies. — 2006. — No 19.
  18. Gomes F., Paz L. Can real exchange rate devaluation improve the trade balance? The 1990–1998 Brazilian case // Applied Economics Letters. — 2005. — No 12. — P. 25–528.
  19. Hacker R., Hatemi-J. A. The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run. Evidence from German trade with transitional Central European Economies // Economics of Transition. — 2004. — No 12(4). — P. 777-799.
  20. Junz H., Rhomberg R. R. Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries // American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings. — 1973. — No 63. — P. 412–418.
  21. Kharel R., Martin C., Milas C. The Complex Response of Monetary Policy to the Exchange Rate // Scottish Journal of Political Economy. — 2010. — No 57. P. 103-117.
  22. Lahiri A., Vegh C. Delaying the Inevitable. Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises // Journal of Political Economy. — 2003. — Vol. 111. No 2.
  23. Lee J., Chinn M. D. The current account and the real exchange rate: a structural VAR analysis of major currencies // National Bureau of Economic Research Inc. — 1998. — WP No 6495.
  24. Mann C. L. Perspectives on the US current account deficit and sustainability // Journal of Economic Perspectives. — 2002. –No 16(3). — P. 131-152.
  25. Milesi-Ferretti G. M., Razin A. Current account reversals and currency crises: empirical regularities // IMF Working Papers. — 1998. — No 98-99.
  26. Mo Pak-Hung 2009. Impossible Trinity, Capital Flow Market and Financial Stability // Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing. — Vol. 62(4) (november). — P. 611-618,.
  27. Muller-Plantenberg N. Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics // International Review of Economics and Finance, 2010. №19,p 46–63
  28. Obstfeld M. The Logic of Currency Crises // National Bureau of Economic Research Inc. — 1994. — WP 4640.
  29. Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited. — University of California Berkeley, Mimeo, 2005. — WP № 10869.
  30. Orcutt Guy H. Measurement of price elasticities in international trade // Review of Economics and Statistics. — 1950. — May. — P. 117-132.
  31. Pontines V., Siregar R. Fundamental pitfalls of exchange market pressure-based approaches to identification of currency crises // International Review of Economics and Finance. — 2008. — No 17(3). — P. 345−365.
  32. Ranciere R. Jeanne O. The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications // IMF Working Papers. International Monetary Fund. — 2006. — No 06(229).
  33. Rose A. K. The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade: does the ‘Marshall–Lerner’s condition hold? // Journal of International Economics. — 1991. — No 30. — P. 301-316.
  34. Summers L. Commentary // Hausman R., Rojas-Suarez, L. (Eds.), Volatile Capital Flows. Taming Their Impact on Latin America. — Baltimore : Inter-American Development Bank and Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996. — P. 53-57.
  35. Svensson L. E. O. Comment // The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis // Journal of Monetary Economics. — 2003. — No 50(5). — P. 1061-1070.
  36. Svensson L. E. O. Transparency and credibility. Monetary policy with unobservable goals // International Economic Review. — 2001. — No 42(2). — P. 369-397.
  37. Tang T. C. A Reassessment of Aggregate Import Demand Function in the Assean-5: A Cointegration Analysis // The International Trade Journal. — 2004. — No 18(3).
  38. Taylor A. M. A century of current account dynamics // Journal of International Money and Finance. — 2002. — No 21(6). — P. 725-748.
  39. Tegene A. Trade flows, relative prices, and effective exchange rates. A VAR on Ethiopian data // Applied Economics. — 1991. — №23. — Р. 1369-1375.
  40. Wilson J. F., Takacs W. E. Differential responses to price and exchange rate influences in the foreign trade of selected industrial countries // Review of Economics and Statistics. — 1979. — №61(2). — Р. 267-279.