Для цитирования:
Асиама, Р. (2026). Продолжает ли урбанизация стимулировать экономический рост в эпоху умных городов и климатических вызовов? AlterEconomics, 23(2), 477–494.https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2026.23-2.12
Аннотация:
В прошлом урбанизация стимулировала экономический рост за счет эффекта агломерации. Однако такие новые вызовы, как цифровая трансформация и экологические изменения (изменение климата), ставят под сомнение универсальность этой стимулирующей связи. Ключевой пробел в исследованиях заключается в том, что роль этих новых вызовов еще не получила достаточной количественной оценки. Цель данной статьи — проследить эволюцию взаимосвязи между урбанизацией и экономическим ростом с учетом количественных оценок взаимодействия цифровых технологий и экологических изменений, определить их пороговые значения, а также предложить новую концептуальную основу. В соответствии с рекомендациями PRISMA 2020 авторы провели поиск в Web of Science, Scopus, EconLit, RePEc/IDEAS и Google Scholar и проанализировали 3892 записи по данной проблематике. В результате были отобраны 186 рецензируемых исследований (1960–2024 годы), связывающих показатели урбанизации (например, плотность населения, размер города) с результатами экономического роста (например, ВВП, производительность), с учетом факторов цифровой трансформации и окружающей среды. Результаты показывают три фазы: сильные положительные эффекты (1960–2000 годы), почти линейный рост в период урбанизации в Индии, Китае и Юго-Восточной Азии (2000–2015 годы) и условное слабое воздействие после 2015 года, при этом средняя эластичность агломерации снизилась с 0,05 до 0,03. Цифровая инфраструктура увеличивает выгоды на 8–15 %, в то время как деградация окружающей среды снижает их на 4–12 %. Новая мультипликативная модель показывает, что чистая выгода от агломерации зависит от физической плотности, усиленной цифровыми (D) и экологическими (E) множителями. Это объясняет, почему эффекты агломерации более выражены в средних по размеру зеленых «умных» городах, чем в мегаполисах. Выводы подтверждают потенциал роста урбанизации за счет эффектов агломерации, но только для цифровых «умных» городов. Ограничения проведенного исследования относятся к возможным географическим искажениям. Поэтому будущие исследования должны оценить причинно-следственные связи инициатив 5G/нулевого уровня выбросов с помощью дополнительных экспериментов и согласованных индексов.
Асиама Ричард — аспирант, докторская школа экономики, Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1688-9747 (Российская Федерация, 101000, г. Москва, ул. Мясницкая, 20; e-mail: richardasiamah173@gmail.com).
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