Для цитирования:
Аджибола, А. Б. (2026). Человеческий капитал, структурная трансформация и загадка производительности Субсахарской Африки: структурированный нарративный обзор. AlterEconomics, 23(3), 741–765. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2026.23-3.11
Аннотация:
Уровень образования населения в Субсахарской Африке быстро растет, однако темпы роста производительности труда, формальной занятости и отраслевого роста остаются неравномерными. Это расхождение обусловливает необходимость проведения структурированного нарративного обзора причин, по которым растущий запас человеческого капитала не приводит к последовательной структурной трансформации в регионе. На базе анализа 113 источников, отобранных посредством структурированного поиска в базах данных ScienceDirect и Google Scholar, сделан обзор, в котором показано, что проблема отражает три взаимосвязанных измерения структурной абсорбции, понимаемой здесь как способность экономики преобразовывать навыки в высокопроизводительную занятость. Во-первых, перераспределение рабочей силы непропорционально смещается в сторону услуг, которые обеспечивают статичный, разовый прирост производительности, а не устойчивый прирост, исторически связанный с обрабатывающей промышленностью, поэтому образование вносит более последовательный вклад там, где оно дает полезные навыки, соответствующие видам деятельности, которые их вознаграждают. Во-вторых, демографический импульс увеличивает потребность в создании рабочих мест быстрее, чем растет спрос на высококвалифицированную рабочую силу, что снижает доступ к оплачиваемой работе для больших групп населения и увеличивает безработицу. В-третьих, исторически сложившиеся институциональные различия продолжают формировать распределение человеческого капитала и производственной активности, в то время как данные на уровне предприятий показывают, что рост производительности не всегда приводит к росту занятости. Эти факторы взаимодействуют по-разному в разных субрегионах и помогают объяснить, почему возобновление индустриализации в одних странах сосуществует с сохраняющейся неформальной экономикой, преждевременной деиндустриализацией в других и неравномерной конвергенцией производительности. Полученные результаты подтверждают необходимость политики, которая связывает реформу образования с созданием продуктивных рабочих мест, модернизацией предприятий и региональными стратегиями трансформации.
Аджибола Айодеджи Бабатунде — аспирант, Международная лаборатория макроэкономического анализа, Департамент теоретической экономики, Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2341-9835 (Российская Федерация, 109028, г. Москва, Покровский бульвар, 11; e-mail: adzhibola.a.b@hse.ru).
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